Originally intended to a Ph.D. thesis on pricing with the title: Cost and risk assessment in DH systems – Applications of heat demand forecasts
The original work plan comprising three years of Ph.D. work (01 September 2015 – 31 August 2018) was extended due to paternity leave (24 October 2016 – 19 November 2016) to 01 September 2015 – 30 September 2018. However, the thesis work was terminated 01 September 2017 before completion. Only 2 publications were completed before interruption.
The remaining work was transferred to a one-year industrial postdoc project within the period 01 November 2018 – 01 November 2019. The postdoc project focused on applying a data-driven approach to resolve the aims of this deliverable in terms of the hourly smart meter data obtained from all customers in the district heating network of Aarhus. In particular, the project investigated the application of using customer data to setup, calibrate and validate physics-based archetype heating energy models of the different building typologies in the city, to be used for reproducing the district heating load in the system and subsequently forecast future loads. These archetype models could then be used to analyse the effect of different demand-side interventions on the system load, for instance the effect of typology-specific retrofits and energy flexible demand response schemes.
Four formal publications were published based on the postdoc work: three in international journal magazines and conference proceedings, and one less formal article in a Danish magazine aimed at district heating professionals.
Furthermore, the postdoc project became involved in two field experimental sub-projects aimed at investigating the potentials and mechanisms of consumer flexible heating energy use (demand response); 1) a project in which 10 apartments were equipped with radio-controlled thermostats, and 2) a project in which two single-family houses were equipped with a radio-controlled heating systems. In both demand-response experiments, the goal was to evaluate the user experiences and
their perception of the thermal environment when exposed to a scenario where their heating is shut off during the critical peak-hours, i.e. during morning-hours when the district heating capacity is stressed. However, none of these experiments were finalized before the deadline of this deliverable.
The work done in the postdoc is currently being used actively in the Energy Leap network initiated by the Aarhus Climate Secretariat. Here professional building owners commit to improving energy efficiency and use benchmarking as one of the tools in visualising potentials and the impact of efforts made. For more detail, please see D5.3.2.
Read the entire deliverable D3.5.5. Post Doc: Data-driven demand side management in district heating
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Deliverable no. D.3.5.5 PostDoc: Data-driven demand side management in district heating (Originally intended to a Ph.D. thesis on pricing with the title: Cost and risk assessment in DH systems – Applications of heat demand forecasts) .
Please contact: Steffen Petersen, Aarhus Universitet, firstname.lastname@example.org